Oil prices have surged to their highest levels in 18 months as conflict in the Middle East disrupts supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

It has prompted fresh warnings that UK motorists could face restrictions if the conflict continues or even escalates for a prolonged period.

International fuel shortages are beginning to cause issues.

While the UK receives a majority of its oil and vehicle fuel from northern Europe and the US, the knock-on effects of supply disruptions in the Middle East will affect us all.

All pumped up

The conflict, triggered by US and Israeli military action against Iran, has raised fears over the effective closure of one of the world’s most critical oil shipping chokepoints.

Around 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait, meaning any sustained disruption has immediate global consequences.

In response, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stark warning, describing the situation as potentially “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”

Its executive director, Fatih Birol, cautioned that without a swift resolution, “the impacts on energy markets and economies are set to become more and more severe.”

 

Emergency measures

The IEA has outlined a 10-point emergency plan aimed at cutting fuel demand and avoiding outright shortages.

Among the most striking proposals are:

• Reducing motorway speed limits by up to 10mph
• Encouraging widespread home working
• Restricting private car use in cities
• Introducing number plate rotation schemes
• Discouraging air travel due to jet fuel shortages

A UK Government source indicated that several of these options, particularly lower motorway speeds, are under consideration by the Department for Transport.

Slower speeds can significantly reduce fuel consumption and could be implemented quickly using existing smart motorway messaging systems, as well as messages through general media sources such as TV, radio and email.

More controversial measures, such as restricting cars based on number plates, have been used in cities like Paris and Delhi to reduce pollution and congestion.

Similar approaches could be used in the UK to cut fuel use, but would require new legal powers.

While Transport for London operates an extensive network of cameras, officials say such a scheme would take time to implement and that the current crisis would require a more immediate and temporary solution.

Actions

Under the UK’s national fuel emergency plan, updated in 2024 by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, far more severe restrictions could be introduced if shortages worsen.

These include:

• Prioritising fuel for emergency services and essential transport
• Limiting how much fuel drivers can buy
• Closing petrol stations overnight
• Direct government control over fuel distribution

In an extreme scenario, ministers could effectively ration fuel across the country.

The rising prices at the pumps could, and to some extent are already, curtailing private vehicle use.

In the stocks

Despite the current international supply issues, experts stress that the UK is not on the brink of running out of fuel.

The country typically holds around 90 days’ worth of oil reserves, in line with international obligations, although not all of this is immediately accessible for road use.

The UK also benefits from a diversified supply.

More than half of its imported crude oil comes from the United States and Norway, reducing direct reliance on Middle Eastern supplies.

Domestic refining capacity has also meant that petrol production exceeded demand last year, providing an additional buffer.

However, analysts warn that even without a physical shortage, oil prices are already rising sharply, prompting forecourt prices to jump.

According to the RAC, petrol prices have increased by around 10% since the conflict began, while diesel has surged by 17%, adding around £6.40 to a tank of petrol and £13 to a tank of diesel.

For other countries more reliant on Middle East oil, the increase has been much higher,  such as Cambodia 67% and Vietnam 50%, to Canada 28% and even the US 17%.

Of course, while we immediately worry about pump prices, rising fuel costs will push inflation higher across the global economy, with the real worry of a global recession if a swift end to the conflict is not forthcoming.

 

 

Pressure cooking

For now, ministers are to reassure the public.

Downing Street has said drivers should “continue to go about their days in a normal fashion,” emphasising that supplies remain stable.

Experts agree that price increases—not rationing—are the most likely short-term outcome.

Energy consultancy Cornwall Insight forecasts the household energy price cap could rise by more than £300 later this year as higher oil and gas costs feed through the system.

Nevertheless, the situation has exposed the UK’s vulnerability to global energy shocks, while globally, the importance of international fuel security and coordination has also come into sharp focus.

While diversification in the UK has improved resilience, transport remains heavily dependent on oil, as well as many products throughout the country’s shopping basket, from plastics to fertilisers.

As the crisis unfolds, the prospect of restrictions, once considered unlikely, has moved closer to reality.

Whether through lower speed limits, reduced travel or tighter controls at the pump, British motorists may soon feel the effects of a conflict thousands of miles away in their everyday journeys.