Source: Intelligent Instructor

The news is bittersweet for learner drivers across the UK.

Data shows the driving test backlog will end, but not until January 2024 at the earliest.

Pressure point

New research reveals more than eight million learners are expected to battle for test slots in 2022/23. According to Marmalade, it means the backlog won’t ease until January 2024.

The estimation comes after the insurance provider obtained data through a Freedom of Information request. This shows all tests booked for 2022, as well as gross demand for tests through the DVSA across all of 2021. Alongside this, the team’s analysis of Office for National Statistics 2021 driving test data reveals the average capacity for practical testing across the UK.

Long road to the test

It’s predicted that across 2022 and 2023, demand for tests will soar to 8,166,564 across the UK. This is much higher than what the DVSA is estimated to be capable of accommodating in its monthly testing.

In 2022 demand will reach its peak in May. Rollover from previous months means 520,581 learners will be queuing for their test. It means that for thousands it will be impossible to get a test booked. At this point the backlog reaches a peak with a rollover of 389,959 learners wanting a slot expected.

Beyond May the rollovers compounds each month for the next 19 months. Test-ready learners build in numbers while capacity for testing struggles to cover demand, even with the DVSA increased provisions.

Capacity only becomes available from January 2024 onwards, which means another two years of delays, extra costs and frustration for thousands of learners across the UK.

The full backlog prediction

2022

Estimated demand for tests

Avg number of tests that can be carried out

Excess tests rolled over to following month

Jan

244377

130622

113755

Feb

332689

130622

202067

March

427539

130622

296917

April

476619

130622

345997

May

520581

130622

389959

June

502589

130622

371967

July

482797

130622

352175

Aug

463005

130622

332383

Sep

443213

130622

312591

Oct

423421

130622

292799

Nov

403629

130622

273007

Dec

383837

130622

253215

Jan ’23

364045

130622

233423

Feb ’23

344253

130622

213631

March ’23

324461

130622

193839

April ’23

304669

130622

174047

May ’23

284877

130622

154255

June ’23

265085

130622

134463

July ’23

245293

130622

114671

Aug ’23

225501

130622

94879

Sep ’23

205709

130622

75087

Oct ’23

185917

130622

55295

Nov ’23

166125

130622

35503

Dec ’23

146333

130622

15711

Jan ’24

126541

130622

Using all of the data points, Marmalade has:

  • Added tests already booked as of the end of Dec 2021 to an average gross monthly demand based on 2021 figures – this figure makes the ‘estimated demand for tests’.

  • This has been plotted against the average number of tests which can be carried out, based on ONS data into the amount of tests carried out across 2021.

More overtime, less test centres

Commenting on the research, Crispin Moger, CEO of Marmalade says learners “have been consistently impacted as a result of the pandemic”.

“We have seen the biggest ever backlog in access to driving tests and for many this will have set them back quite considerably in their journey to getting on the road or perhaps even ended it for some.

“The DVSA has said it is offering overtime to examiners and rolling out a recruitment drive to increase capacity, while also closing down test centres across the UK as well as we’ve seen recently in the likes of Manchester and Shropshire.”

“Our recent survey of learner drivers across the UK found that 77% of learners cite the extra cost of more lessons as the biggest frustration in the delay for tests, followed by delaying independence and freedom (68%) among others. With this in mind we’d encourage learners to forward plan as much as they can, also considering private practice with a family member to supplement lessons to help ensure they are ready when the big day comes.”